El Nino
While some forecasting methods had limited SUCCESS predicting the 1997 E1 Nino a few months in advance，the Columbia University researchers say their method call predict large E1 Nino events up to two years in advance．That would be good news for governments，farmers and others seeking to plan for the droughts and heavy rainfall that El Nino can produce in various parts of the world.
Using a computer the researchers matched sea-surface temperatures to later El Nino occurrences between 1980 and 2000 and were then able to anticipate E1 Nino events dating back to1857, using prior sea-surface temperatures．The results were reported in the latest issue of the journal Nature．
The researchers say their method is not perfect, but Bryan C．Weare．a meteorologist at the University of California, Davis，who was not involved in the work，said it“suggests‘E1 Nino is indeed predictable．”
“This will probably convince others to search around more for even better methods．”said Weare．He added that the new method“makes it possible to predict El Nino at 1ong lead times．” Other models also use sea-surface temperatures, but they have not looked as far back because they need other data，which is only available for recent decades，Weare said．
The ability to predict the warming and cooling of the Pacitic is of immense importance’．The 1997 El Nino，for example，caused an estimated$20 billion in damage worldwide，offset by beneficial effects in other areas，said David Anderson，of the European Centre for Medium．Range Weather Forecasts in Reading England．The 1877 El Nino，meanwhile，coincided with a failure of the Indian monsoon and a famine that killed perhaps 40 million in India and China。prompting the development of seasonal forecasting，Anderson said．
When El Nino hit in 199 1 and 1997．200 million people were affected by flooding in China alone．according to a 2002 United Nations report．
While predicting smaller E1 Nino events remains tricky．the ability to predict larger ones should be increased to at least a year if the new method is confirmed．
E1 Nino tends to develop between April and June and reaches its peak between December and February．The warming tends to last between 9 and 1 2 months and occurs every two to seven years•
The new forecasting method does not predict any major El Nino events in the next two years, although a weak warming toward the end of this year is possible．
E1 Nino n．厄尔尼诺现象
Equatorial adj．赤道的
Occurrence n．发生
Meteorologist n．气象学家
Offset v．抵销
Lead adj．提前的
Monsoon n．季风
Tricky adj．难以捉摸的
练习：
1．The method used by the Columbia University researchers can predict E1 Nino a few months in advance．
A．Right B．Wrong C．Not mentioned
2. The Columbia University researchers studied the relationship between the past EI Nino occurrences and sea—surface temperatures．
A．Right B．Wrong C．Not mentioned
3. The Columbia University researchers are the first to use sea-surface temperatures to match the past EI Nino occurrences．
A．Right B．Wrong C．Not mentioned
4. Weare’s contribution in predicting E1 Nino，was highly praised by other meteorologists．
A．Right B．Wrong C．Not mentioned
5. According to a Chinese report，the flooding in China caused by E1 Nino in 1 99 1 and 1 997 affected 200 million Chinese people．
A．right B．Wrong C．Not mentioned
6. It takes about eight months for El Nino to reach its peak．
A．right B．Wrong C．Not mentioned
7. A special institute has been set up in America to study E1 Nino．
A．Right B．Wrong C．Not mentioned
参考答案：
El Nino （厄尔尼诺现象）
1． B．分析：利用句子中的特征词Columbia University researchers 和a few months in advance作为答案线索，这样发现答案相关句：While some forecasting methods had limited SUCCESS predicting the 1997 E1 Nino a few months in advance，the Columbia University researchers say their method can predict large E1 Nino events up to two years in advance．（问题句说“提前几个月”，而原文说“最远能提前到两年”，因此可见问题句的内容中有与原文不一致的地方，因此判断该句“不正确”。）
2．A．分析：利用句子中出现的核心结构EI Nino occurrences 和 sea—surface temperatures作为答案线索，这样发现答案相关句：Using a computer the researchers matched sea-surface temperatures to later El Nino occurrences between 1980 and 2000 （该划线结构的含义基本上与问题句的内容一致，还需要辨别the researchers是否就是“The Columbia University researchers”，而前文中出现的就是“The Columbia University researchers”，问题句的内容都在原文中有呼应的内容，因此判断该句的说法正确。）
3．C．分析：该题涉及到的内容和前面出现的问题有关，注意到题干中出现的特征词（the first），因此判断对该词的确认是关键。利用该词作为答案线索，这样发现文章中没有这个词出现。因为该句是概括总结句，因此再利用句子出现的核心结构sea-surface temperatures 和the past EI Nino occurrences作为答案线索，发现涉及这两个结构的句子所表达的句意都与问题句的内容无关，因此判断问题句的说法“没提到”。
4． C． 分析：利用句子中出现的特征词Weare作为答案线索，这样发现答案相关句：but Bryan C．Weare, a meteorologist at the University of California, Davis，who was not involved in the work，said it“suggests‘E1 Nino is indeed predictable．”
“This will probably convince others to search around more for even better methods．”said Weare．He added that the new method“makes it possible to predict El Nino at 1ong lead times．” Other models also use sea-surface temperatures, but they have not looked as far back because they need other data，which is only available for recent decades，Weare said．(这些涉及到Weare的句子在内容上都没有讲述是否Weare在预测厄尔尼诺现象方面作出了贡献，也没有提到他的贡献是否得到了其他气象学家的高度赞扬)
5．B．分析：利用句子中出现的特征词Chinese report， in 1 99 1 and 1 997和200 million Chinese people作为答案线索，这样发现答案相关句：When El Nino hit in 199 1 and 1997, 200 million people were affected by flooding in China alone, according to a 2002 United Nations report．（该句的内容与问题句的内容不一致。）
6． A． 分析：该问题句内容和结构都较简单，句子中出现了一个数字（8个月），因此猜测对于这个数字的辨别是解题的关键。借助eight months 和句子中的核心词peak作为答案线索，这样找到答案相关句： E1 Nino tends to develop between April and June and reaches its peak between December and February（借助该句含义可以推出“El Nino需要大约8个月达到峰值”）
7． C．分析：利用句子中出现的核心词A special institute 和 America作为答案线索，这样发现文章中根本就没有提到“在美国建立一所特别的研究院”，因此该句为“没提到”。
更多职称英语信息请关注:
环球网校2009年职称英语等级考试网上辅导方案介绍
环球网校职称英语频道
百度职称英语
您现在的位置：职称英语理工类AB级阅读判断典型例题(1)更多点击>>职称英语| 辅导科目 | 主讲 | 基础班 | 精讲班 | 冲刺班 | 考题预测班 | 报名 | ||
| 综合类 | 么建华 | 24讲 |
50讲 |
20讲 |
10讲 |
 |
||
| 理工类 | 么建华 | 24讲 |
50讲 |
20讲 |
10讲 |
|||
| 卫生类 | 么建华 | 24讲 |
50讲 |
20讲 |
10讲 |
|||
| 1、签约保过套餐： 750元/套，含基础班+精讲班+冲刺班+考题预测班，赠送真题班+职称计算机课程（word2003+excel2003），考试不过免费重学(老学员九折优惠)，2012年5月31日报名截止！ 2、精品强化套餐： 含精讲班+冲刺班+考题预测班=400元/套(老学员360元，原价 热线电话：400-678-3456(长途免费) / 010-59059038(北京地区) |
||||||||
